2017-10-26

Open Letter to Monstrata and alike

Dear Monstrata

The talk (below) is more related to investments, but there are more things in the midst of his words, so pay attention.

text by Felipe Miranda, CEO Founder of Empiricus Research
translated by Alarido, Empiricus customer

« Overconfidence in itself is the seed for further destruction. The guy sees no more risks. He is convinced that his positions [TN: opinions too] will win, without any room for scares or jitters in the way. If I have been so successful in the past, it will certainly be so in the future. The convergence of the material scenario for my projections was not due to a combination of random forces which, by chance, only coincidentally resulted in what I expected. Looking back, "It just might have been like this, right?"

Unfortunately, the story does not tell what it could have been. Just what it was. This feeling that, in the past, one can foresee the future forms a feeling of omnipotence, infallibility and invincibility. It creates the false sense that we can leverage ourselves, concentrate excessively - after all, we know exactly what will happen ahead, will not it?

The financial market does not belong to the heroes. No one can 'chest trap' [TN: "matar no peito", as used in soccer context] all the randomness and uncertainty to which we are subjected. Success belongs to the survivors. I think of George Soros, who survived the Holocaust. He says all the time that his greatest merit is not to err less than the others - is to admit the error and correct quickly. To me, you're the biggest investor of all time. I think of the figure of the greatest Brazilian manager [TN: i.e., Luis Stuhlberger, strategist of the Verde Asset]. I think of several other big money winners. They are all geniuses, but, above all, survivors. They doubt themselves - that is the greatest merit. Know your own limitations. You need to have a little fear, a mistrust about yourself that will push you to the proper risk management, a paranoia that will not let you sleep at night if there is any position out of place.

The archetype can not be that of the hero. The hero is fragile, alone, he wants to kill everyone. The hero dies of overdose, over concentration or leverage.

If you need an archetype to serve as your imagery, stick with the wise. Open the picture of Master Yoda on your computer and save it on the desktop. I mean it. That says a lot.

Notice the two large, wide ears, always ready to listen - more than to speak (notice the small mouth). The open coat and chest ready to embrace and welcome new ideas, without the typical stubbornness of those who hear only themselves. Contemplate the thick and long nails, an important reference to the passage of time, old age and the experience of those who have been through much (value the true practitioners, those who make money a long time, have seen everything and know the shortcuts). Realize his staff, always maintaining a connection of his body with the earth - it's kinda Anteu, the giant son of Poseidon and Gaia, who was strong and unbeatable, but only when in contact with the ground.

Always keep your feet flat on the floor. Give up the heroes, even if he's fantasizing about yourself. »

Felipe Miranda

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